The next (Super) Bubble-Bust coming?

August & September during Election Year when there is no re-election of current President. Rings a bell? 2000 Clinton – Dot-com crash. 2008- Mortgage financials crash. And 2016 most probably be big banks as many predict. Last time bush invited Obama well before he was elected to start getting into the process of bailouts because bush was part of the beneficiary group of the bailout. So trillions of dollar deals cut with so many fancy financial bucky-ball created to confuse everyone to feed the big fishes. Lehmann brother and AIG fallouts were just a few samples thrown out so the others will get what they wanted. But this year it is tricky. The current president – future president duo cannot be established between Obama and Trump. So, it has to be Obama and Hillary to start giving payouts for bailing out the large banks whose exposure to risky derivatives run over 200 trillion. But since by all means the indication(forget about fake polls), that trump is going to win, the bankers have problems. There is no way they are going to survive with the current situation for more than 6-7 months before they crash. They need more money printed and handed over to them as soon as possible to keep them going. The question is whether they should approach Obama now or the next president. If they are sure Hillary will be in the office, they will let few of the entities go down in September, create a crisis and then reach out to the Government formally paving a way for the bailout. Remember, from the time of the bailout pledge and the time of distribution of money takes more than 6 months to(up to 2 years to complete the cycle of printing and pushing). So, unless the next President is taken for confidence into the process like last time, it is not going to work. So, the banks have two options. Create a larger crisis so that any president no matter what must have to bail at least some of them out. Or wait for next president to come and hang in there till then. If they hang in there, if trump becomes president, most probably they are not going to get an easy walk and big payouts for failed executives etc. Or we never know- they may play a very different game for quick payouts during Obama period itself(i can imagine how fast the printing should be done) Or is it going on now itself. We never know. That kind of bailout is going to be the biggest controversies and may yield another Nobel Prize for Obama. So, Bankers mind is ticking now… recent provoking speech from trump urging the bubble to burst now instead of later shows it clearly. Like most of the politicians and financial gurus, Trump knows it is eventually going to happen. He prefers it to happen this September so that he will have lesser pressure to negotiate with banks in January. But banks may want the exact opposite of it. Either way, we are going to see fireworks any time in the next 6 months. Whether it is going to be small firework followed by big usual cover up or huge firework that leads to complete reform. I prefer the second one although I am going to be affected too like billions of people around the world. But at least we will be done with this fake pile up Economy of derivatives and start fresh.

Suresh Kannan