Pundits, talking heads and party operatives all have their opinions on who’s going to win this coming Tuesday.
However, if you want a less-political assessment of the election odds with some gravitas behind it, talk to someone who has money riding on the outcome.
And we’re talking some serious coin that could portend a seriously stunning Election Day.
A major Irish bookmaker has announced that, in the wake of FBI probes into potentially criminal dealings involving Hillary Clinton, more than 90 percent of bets they’ve received on the U.S. presidential election have gone toward Republican nominee Donald Trump.
According to The Hill, Paddy Power — one of the biggest betting sites on the Emerald Isle — says 91 percent of bets are backing Trump in the past couple of days, compared to 9 percent for Clinton. Apparently, there aren’t even any gamblers degenerate enough to take a flier on Gary Johnson, Jill Stein or Evan McMullin.
While this might just sound like a cute story, this actually has major implications in judging the quickly shifting tide for next Tuesday’s landmark presidential election.
Paddy Power noted the betting trends on their Twitter account Wednesday.
In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pGEkHMbrF2
— Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) November 1, 2016
“We’re not reaching for the rosary beads just yet, but if money talks — and it usually does — it’s telling us that Trump still has a puncher’s chance and he’ll be leaving us with some very expensive egg on our face if he does manage to pull it off,” Paddy Power spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire said.
Complicating things for Paddy Power is the fact that they already paid out on bets for a Hillary Clinton win in November, stating that she was a “nailed-on certainty to occupy the Oval Office.”
“Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate but the recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum and his chances now look as patchy as his tan,” the quotable Iomaire said at that juncture.
“Recent betting trends have shown one way traffic for Hillary and punters seemed to have called it 100% correct. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America are going to put a woman in the White House.”
Now, it’s worth pointing out that Trump’s odds are currently 9/4. For those of you who aren’t gamblers, this means if you bet $400 and he wins, you get $900 back. This means the big dog in the Republican kennel is still an underdog — but an attractive one, apparently, for gamblers.
British and Irish betters do occasionally get things wrong. Bob Dylan, for instance, was given 50/1 odds at winning the Nobel Prize for Literature. Another political betting expert said that he was “80 percent to 90 percent certain that Britain will not leave the EU” due to betting patterns before the July vote.
However, they often get many things right in the political arena, if just for one reason: cold, hard cash has no agenda.
Unlike the liberal media, betters have no reason to buy into spin and nonsense. If an MSNBC talking head says that Donald Trump is a bigot and a danger to America that nobody in their right mind would ever vote for, and a gambler bets on Donald Trump, they still win or lose that money no matter what the person on MSNBC says.
If you put money on Hillary Clinton and she loses, you can’t claim sexism and white privilege were responsible and get that money back. There is no “safe space” for you to go to in order to fill out a reimbursement form. Bitterly describing Trump voters as “deplorables” and “bigots” and “nativists” will not get you that money back.
If Trump wins on Nov. 8 — and recent polls indicate that’s much more likely than it was just a week ago — you can bet that every liberal pundit and journalist will make one (or all) of those arguments. They have that luxury. Gamblers don’t, and they’ve looked at the polls and then at the odds. They think Donald Trump is a better bet than Hillary Clinton.
And those in the media shouldn’t ignore that fact.